What will be the impacts of the improvement of economic relation across Taiwan Strait ?
Present economic and social situations in both sides of the Strait regardless of their respective size are like two different water level reservoirs, namely Taiwan's has higher water level, while it's opposite lower.
In fact, these two reservoirs were always connected to each other through a connection pipe, because money sees no boundary and it's businessmen's only mother nation. No matter how tight the regulation has been, they can always found ways to bypass those regulations. Thus the water in higher level reservoir will always flow to the lower one until they reach equilibrium, when the competition conditions between both sides will be almost the same.
The degree of regulating will dictate the length of this connection pipe and its caliber. Looser regulation will cut short of and widen it, and allow the water to flush in shorter time, while tighter regulation will bring about longer term gentle water decline.
Although ultimately reaching an equilibrium is unavoidable, isn't more days of showers more favorable than a strong Typhoon?
Taiwan's only way to maintain its water level difference is to has an extra constant water infusion. Namely, that's how much competition advantages it has over mainland China, and how well it is differentiated from the later in terms of industry strategy. If none of them exists,Taiwan had better be prepared to accept the short term even worse outcome.
台海二岸經濟關係改善的影響若何?
目前海峽二邊的經濟和社會狀況,先不論規模大小,像二座水位不同的水庫,也就是說台灣的水位較高,對岸的水位較低.
其實這二座水庫一直都有連通管互相接著,因為金錢眼中是沒有國界的,它也是生意人唯一的祖國.不管管制如何嚴密,生意人總是可以找出規避的方法.所以高水位水庫的水必定往低水位的水庫流動,直到達到均衡點,這時二岸的競爭條件大概也相近了.
管制的程度決定連通管的長度和口徑,較鬆的管制讓連通管變短、口徑增大,使得它可以在較短的期間內讓暴水通過.而較嚴格的管制則帶來較長期的溫和水位下降.
雖然結果終將趨向均衡,不過連下多天的陣雨總比強颱要好吧!
有額外不斷的水源注入是台灣唯一可以保持水位差異的方法,確切的說,就是台灣對大陸擁有多少競爭優勢,以及台灣的產業策略與大陸有多少差異化,如果二者都付之闕如,那麼最好準備接受短期內更壞的結果.
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